Big box, little inventory

I accompanied Mom to the Mall of America over the weekend (aka: The Big Retail Shrine), on her annual Christmas shopping visit to Minneapolis. While she looked for stocking stuffers and gifts, my eyes focused on inventory patterns and staffing...which were more educational than expected.

Because her visit is an annual event occurring the same week each October, I have a pretty reliable yardstick to measure one holiday season against the next. This one held some surprises that made it clear at least a few of the big boys saw a soft fourth quarter coming, and have adjusted accordingly...much to the dismay of hopeful shoppers.

Many stores--and by "many" I mean "a whole heckofalot"--are carrying far less inventory than usual, holiday and otherwise. For instance, the huge Department 56 store just outside of Nordstrom is normally jammed full of gift items by the third week in October, the front portion of the store so crowded with decorated trees, enormous baskets of trimmings, loads of little gifty items, and other non-Village products that it's almost impossible to turn around without bumping into a nearby display.

This year? Big, wide open spaces. Two of the Villages have been moved to share a small display in that area (Christmas in the City and Dickens, for those of you who know the line), which doesn't eat up a lot of room. Hardly any of the gifty pick-up stuff is there, and next to nothing is shown for decorated trees. Looking at that section of the store, I'd venture a guess they're stocking about 20-25% less than what's normally offered. The employee I spoke to said all their holiday is in, so...looks like this is it.

Mom also noticed the enormous amount of Halloween being shown by comparrison--which seemed disproportionately high, measured against past years. Nearly all of it was marked 50% off.

Another store that stuck out like a sore thumb was Crabtree and Evelyn. By the third week in October, this location is typically filled to the gills with holiday items and extra year 'round inventory. Like Department 56, it's show floor usually requires a shopper to be mindful of nearby displays while navigating the many options available for purchase. This year? The new India Hicks product has been given a big, airy display table, with loads of empty space all around. None of the familiar gift items are on the counter...the many show floor product displays are missing, along with the robes and matching accoutrements...and the entire children's line has disappeared, according to an employee we spoke to. At least 1/3 of the normal inventory level has dropped from sight.

These weren't two exceptions to the rule; they were examples of the rule, and that rule appeared in store after store after store, regardless of target market.

This seems to prove two things: Halloween isn't moving, to no one's surprise, given the economy. By the time "the powers that be" recognized a problem, it was too late to back down factory orders on ghouls and goblins, so pushing it out the door at half price is the only alternative.

Christmas production, on the other hand, could still be cut back, given the later delivery dates. Judging by their displays and space allotment, Department 56 doesn't seem to be banking on much beyond returning Snow Village customers.

This bodes well for independent retailers, folks. If the big boxes provide less merchandise and less selection, odds improve that customers will seek options in their neighborhood stores and boutiques. If you haven’t set up your holiday displays yet, do. True, I’m not a fan of Christmas before Halloween, but given the holes I saw this weekend, my guess is 2008’s the year to break that tradition.